- Risks for states. To produce budgetary savings, a block grant would have to give states less federal funding than they would receive under the current system. Also, federal funding under a block grant would no longer rise automatically in response to recessions, epidemics, or medical breakthroughs that improve health or save lives but at increased cost. For these reasons, the block grant would shift an ever-larger share of Medicaid costs to states over time.
- Risks for beneficiaries. Block-grant or cap proposals typically give states much more flexibility over their Medicaid programs. So as states' block grants fell further and further behind what they needed, states would likely make up for the shortfall by using this greater flexibility to sharply restrict enrollment, eligibility, and benefits. Many people who would currently qualify for Medicaid could end up uninsured; many Medicaid beneficiaries, such as people with serious disabilities, could lose critical services. States could also impose premiums and other costs on beneficiaries that many would find unaffordable.
- Risks to health care providers. In some states, low reimbursement rates have impeded Medicaid beneficiaries' access to physicians, particularly specialists. States looking for Medicaid savings have tended to focus first on provider reimbursement rates, and are likely to cut provider rates further in the face of inadequate block grant funding. This would likely cause more providers to withdraw from Medicaid, threatening beneficiaries' access to care.
Block-grant proponents argue that Medicaid's financing structure has helped cause costs to rise out of control. Over the past 30 years, however, Medicaid costs per beneficiary have tracked costs in the health-care system as a whole, both public and private. Moreover, average per-beneficiary costs are much lower under Medicaid than under private insurance (after adjusting for Medicaid beneficiaries' poorer average health), despite Medicaid's more comprehensive benefits and significantly lower cost-sharing charges.
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